Estimating Barro Misery Index in Democratic States with Application in Albania: 2005 – 2014

    • IMG_1262
    • Presentation speakers
      • Fejzi Kolaneci, University of New York in Tirana, Albania

    Abstract:

    In the present study we develop a statistical analysis of the Barro misery index and its components in contemporary democratic states with application in Republic of Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014. BMI is calculated by the formula:
    BMI = π + u – GPD + i, where
    BMI denotes quarterly Barro misery index,
    π denotes quarterly inflation rate,
    u denotes quarterly unemployment rate,
    GDP denotes quarterly real GDP growth rate,
    i denotes nominal long-term interest rate.

    Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is a fundamental theorem of Modern Probability Theory “Fair game” and “Effective market in week sense” are important concepts of Macroeconomics.
    Some results of the study include :
    1. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly inflation rates in Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014 at the confidence 99.9%.
    2. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 98.8%.
    3. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is not effective at the confidence 97.5%
    4. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly unemployment rates in Albania during the specified period at the confidence 99.9%.
    5. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 99.9%.
    6. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is not effective at the confidence 99.9%
    7. The official data of the quarterly GDP growth rate for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 77.1%.
    8. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 86.4%.
    9. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 99.9%.
    10. The official data of the quarterly Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 96.1%.
    11. The Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 84.8%.
    12. The Barro misery index process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 63.7%.