Estimating Barro Misery Index in Democratic States with Application in Albania: 2005 – 2014

• • 
  • Presentation speakers
    • Fejzi Kolaneci, University of New York in Tirana, Albania

  Abstract:

  In the present study we develop a statistical analysis of the Barro misery index and its components in contemporary democratic states with application in Republic of Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014. BMI is calculated by the formula:
  BMI = π + u – GPD + i, where
  BMI denotes quarterly Barro misery index,
  π denotes quarterly inflation rate,
  u denotes quarterly unemployment rate,
  GDP denotes quarterly real GDP growth rate,
  i denotes nominal long-term interest rate.

  Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is a fundamental theorem of Modern Probability Theory “Fair game” and “Effective market in week sense” are important concepts of Macroeconomics.
  Some results of the study include :
  1. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly inflation rates in Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014 at the confidence 99.9%.
  2. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 98.8%.
  3. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is not effective at the confidence 97.5%
  4. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly unemployment rates in Albania during the specified period at the confidence 99.9%.
  5. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 99.9%.
  6. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is not effective at the confidence 99.9%
  7. The official data of the quarterly GDP growth rate for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 77.1%.
  8. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 86.4%.
  9. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 99.9%.
  10. The official data of the quarterly Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 96.1%.
  11. The Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 84.8%.
  12. The Barro misery index process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 63.7%.

 

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