Testing the Reliability of 2011 Census – Albania Using Benford’s Law

• • 
  • Presentation speakers
    • Fejzi Kolaneci, University of New York in Tirana, Albania
    • Alma Përmeti, Ministry of Interior Affairs of Albania
    • Aurela Biçaku, University “Aleksander Moisiu” Durres, Albania
  • Download presentation
    • Fejzi Kolaneci Testing the Reliability of 2011 Census - Albania Using Benford´s Law.pdf

  Abstract:

  The main purpose of the study is to test the hypothesis whether the second digit of demographic data 2011 Census-Al obeys Benford’s law. We consider 2827 data divided into five groups. The source of official data is INSTAT.
  The results of this study include:
  1. The mean of second digit for all five groups of the data converge to Benford’s law, at the confidence level 95%.
  2. The data for group 1 obeys Benford’s law at the confidence level 95%.
  3. The data for group 2 obeys Benford’s law at the confidencde level 95%.
  4. The data for group 3 contradicts Benford’s law at the confidence level 99.5%.
  5. The data for group 4 obeys Benford’s law at the confidencde level 95%.
  6. The data for group 5 contradicts Benford’s law at the confidence level 95%.
  7. The data for groups 1,2,3,4,5 together contradict Benford’s law at the confidence 90%.
  Therefore, these 2827 official data obtained from 2011 Census-Al are suspectable for manipulation.

 

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