Detecting Speculation in Inflation Process by Testing Fair Game Hypothesis: Albania’s Case, January 2000 – January 2014

• • 
  • Presentation speakers
    • Fejzi Kolaneci, University of New York in Tirana, Albania
    • Xhulia Dushku, University of New York, Tirana, Albania
    • Juxhen Duzha, University of New York, Tirana, Albania
    • Renaldo Rasa, University of New York, Tirana, Albania
  • Download presentation
    • Fejzi Kolaneci-Xhulia Dushku-Juxhen Duzha-Renaldo Rasa Detecting Speculation in Inflation Process by Testing Fair Game Hypothesis-Albanian Case-January 2000-January 2014.pdf

  Abstract:

  The present study is an attempt to investigate whether the monthly inflation rate in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014 follows a normal distribution and whether the fair game hypothesis is accepted for the inflation process in Albania over the specified period.
  The results of this study include:
  1. The CLT is not applicable for monthly inflation rate (compared with previous month) in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014, at the confidence level ≥99.95%.
  2. The inflation process in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014 is a speculative game, at the confidence level ≥99.95%.
  3. The CLT is not applicable for monthly inflation rate (compared with the same month previous year) in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014, at the confidence level 70%.
  4. There is a strong support (suspect) for the presence of excessive speculation in Albania during the specified period.
  5. The speculative game inflation process in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014 associated with a huge economic loss for Albanian people.

  The monthly inflation rate departure from normal distribution and “unfair game inflation process” for Albania during the specified period are transitory or persistent? The answer to this question is crucial for Albanian people. The “speculative game inflation process” in Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014 contradicts the Modern Welfare Theory. We can approximately estimate the associated huge financial loss of Albanian families: 5 – 7 milliard euros. The severity of speculative game process in Albania over the period January 2000 – January 2014 is an obvious finding of our study.
  The observed extreme departures of monthly inflation rate from normal distribution and the severity of “unfair game inflation process” for Albania during the period January 2000 – January 2014 seem to have a surprise to some international scientists.

 

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